Startkeel · Financial model

Example financial model

Real figures

devtools · pre-seed · PLG · 36-month projection

Verdict

✅ Default alive — your business reaches sustainability

You reach break-even in month 1 without exhausting cash in the horizon.

The first thing to fix

⚠️Net revenue retention is low
Your existing customers bring in 89% of last year's revenue (NRR) — low even for your price band. Cheap self-serve rarely clears 100%, so that alone is not the problem; being below what similar-priced products retain is. Win it back with upsells/expansion or by lowering churn.

Viability score

85/100

Viability score

Strong

Numbers hold up well across the board for your stage.

At risk

0–39

Fragile

40–59

On track

60–79

Strong

80–100

Survivali

Unit economicsi

Retentioni

Growthi

Efficiencyi

Orientative, not absolute — weighted from survival, unit economics, retention, growth and efficiency against early-stage SaaS ranges (§9). Read it by stage, not as a grade.

Does your business hold up?

RunwayiRunway at today's burn rate — a conservative floor (if nothing improves). If your growth plan plays out, cash can last longer, or never run out — see the projected cash-out. "36+" means you're not burning cash.

36+ months

Final MRRiProjected monthly recurring revenue at the end of the horizon.

$56,118

Avg MoM growthiAverage month-over-month MRR growth in the projection.

3.9%

Annual NRRiNet Revenue Retention: % of revenue you keep and expand from existing customers over a year, excluding new ones. >100% = you grow without selling.

89%

Cash over time

Cash isn't exhausted within the horizon (break-even in month 1).

MRR and active customers

MRR ($, left axis) · active customers (right axis)

Projection assumes your growth holds flat for 3 years; real growth usually slows, so later months read optimistic.

Team cost ramp

Loaded headcount cost per month ($).

Unit economics and burn

ARPAiAverage revenue per customer per month (MRR ÷ active customers).

$70

LTViCustomer lifetime value: ARPA × gross margin ÷ churn. What a customer leaves you on average while they stay.

$1,400

CACiCost to acquire a customer: sales/marketing spend ÷ new customers.

$385

LTV : CACiHow much a customer is worth vs what it costs to acquire them. Healthy ≥3 (mature SaaS reference).

3.6×

CAC paybackiMonths to recover CAC with the customer's margin. <12 strong; usually higher early-stage.

6.9 months

Monthly net burniWhat you burn per month = OpEx − gross profit. Negative = you make money.

Profitable

Burn multipleiHow much you burn per $ of new ARR. ≤1 excellent; at pre-seed 2.5-3.4x is normal.

Profitable

Rule of 40iAnnual growth % + EBITDA margin %. ≥40 signals a healthy balance — but it is a scale-up metric, less meaningful before Series A.

>100

Magic numberiSales efficiency: new ARR ÷ prior sales/marketing spend. >0.75 healthy.

7.64

Quick ratioi(New + expansion) ÷ (churn + contraction). >4 = you grow much faster than you lose.

2.2

Diagnosis vs benchmarks

Metric	Your value	Healthy range	Verdict
Monthly logo churniChurn = the % of customers who cancel each month. 5%/mo ≈ losing ~46% of customers a year.	4%/mo	2.5%–4%/mo	✅
NRR (annual)iNRR = net revenue retention: revenue kept from existing customers a year later, after churn and upgrades. Over 100% = you grow even with zero new customers.	88.6%	90%–110%	⚠️
Gross marginiGross margin = % of revenue left after the direct cost of serving customers (hosting, fees, support).	80%	75%–85%	✅
CAC paybackiCAC payback = how many months a customer takes to repay what it cost to acquire them.	6.9 m	≤ 18 m (pre-seed)	✅
LTV : CACiLTV:CAC = how much a customer is worth over their lifetime versus what it costs to win them. 3+ is healthy.	3.6×	≥ 3×	✅
Growth MoMiMoM growth = month-over-month growth: how much this number grows each month, compounding.	3.9%	≤ 25% (base 14K)	✅

Churn and retention are judged against your price band (ARPA $50-500/mo) — cheaper products churn more, and that is normal. ✅ healthy · ⚠️ watch · 🚩 flag · ℹ️ too optimistic · — N/A.

These are a reference for your stage, not a verdict: many "healthy" ranges were set for mature SaaS. At pre-seed/seed a high burn multiple (≈2.5-3.4x) or long CAC payback is normal while you find traction. Use them to orient yourself, not to punish yourself.

Scenarios & sensitivity

	Pessimistic	Base	Optimistic
Verdict	✅	✅	✅
Cash-out month	> 36 mo	> 36 mo	> 36 mo
Break-even	1 mo	1 mo	1 mo
Final MRR	25,210	56,118	125,914
Final cash	328,240	597,480	1,049,317

Even the pessimistic case doesn't run out of cash — that's real robustness; your downside is protected. Each adjusts growth, churn, OpEx and price together — a realistic range, not a promise.

What moves your runway most

These are the levers you can change, ranked by how much each moves your cash. Start at the top - that's where your effort pays off most. Each lever is moved on its own, with the rest held fixed; in reality they interact.

Each lever moved ±10% on its own — green helps your final cash, amber hurts it.

Higher price-85,039 · +85,039

Lower churn-40,956 · +44,229

Lower OpEx-29,291 · +29,291

Faster growth-8,355 · +8,394

P&L — monthly year 1, annual thereafter

$	M1	M2	M3	M4	M5	M6	M7	M8	M9	M10	M11	M12	Year 2	Year 3
Revenue	14,406	14,835	15,289	15,768	16,274	16,808	17,372	17,966	18,593	19,254	19,951	20,686	321,981	533,802
Gross profitiRevenue minus the direct cost of delivering your service (hosting, payment fees, support). What's left to cover everything else.	11,525	11,868	12,231	12,614	13,019	13,446	13,897	14,373	14,875	15,404	15,961	16,548	257,585	427,042
OpExiOperating expenses: everything you spend to run the business — team, sales & marketing, tools, admin, R&D.	-5,650	-5,800	-5,957	-6,123	-6,297	-6,479	-6,670	-6,871	-7,082	-7,304	-7,537	-7,781	-117,555	-185,803
Team	-2,500	-2,500	-2,500	-2,500	-2,500	-2,500	-2,500	-2,500	-2,500	-2,500	-2,500	-2,500	-30,000	-30,000
S&M	-3,000	-3,150	-3,307	-3,473	-3,647	-3,829	-4,020	-4,221	-4,432	-4,654	-4,887	-5,131	-85,755	-154,003
G&A	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-600	-600
Infra	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-1,200	-1,200
EBITDAiOperating-profit proxy (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). Negative = you're burning cash; positive = profitable.	5,875	6,068	6,274	6,492	6,723	6,968	7,227	7,502	7,792	8,100	8,424	8,767	140,030	241,239

Diagnosis

Your numbers hold up across the board. Protect what works and keep pushing.

What this means

Will you survive?
In short: your business holds up. You reach break-even around month 1 — the point where revenue covers your costs — before running low on cash. That's the foundation; now it's about accelerating without breaking it.
What's your biggest problem?
Nothing here is badly broken — the numbers hold together. The work now is pushing the parts that are merely 'fine' to 'strong', and protecting the ones that are working.
Do you make money on each customer?
On the per-customer maths: it costs about $385 to win a customer, and each one is worth roughly $1,400 over their lifetime — about 3.6 to 1. Healthy is 3 to 1 or better, so there's room, but you're in workable territory.
What do you fix first?
What to focus on: you're in good shape, so the job is to protect what works and push your strongest levers harder — without letting costs or churn creep up as you grow.

What to look at first

✅Solid unit economics
Each customer is worth 3.6× what it costs to win them (LTV:CAC ≥3) — comfortably more than they cost. You've got room to spend on growth.

Second opinion from your AI

Analyze this model in your own AI

Copy a ready-made prompt with your numbers, paste it into ChatGPT, Claude or any AI, and get a skeptical second opinion — red flags, what's strong, and what to fix next.

Runs in YOUR AI — we don't see it or store it. AI can make mistakes; treat it as a second opinion, not gospel. The prompt tells it not to invent numbers, but always sanity-check.