Startkeel · Financial model

Example financial model

Real figures

saas · pre-seed · PLG · 36-month projection

Verdict

⚠️ Default dead — you run out of cash before profitability

You run out of cash in month 2 and you don't reach break-even in the horizon. Cut burn, raise revenue or secure funding.

The first thing to fix

🚩Critical runway
Under 6 months of cash — this is the one to fix first. Trim ~$3,279/mo of spending, or raise ~$39,351 to reach 12 months. Don't wait: raising itself takes months you don't have.

Viability score

23/100

Viability score

At risk

Core numbers don't hold up yet. Fix the red items below before scaling.

⚠️ Not default-alive — you run out of cash before break-even. Survival comes first.

At risk

0–39

Fragile

40–59

On track

60–79

Strong

80–100

Survivali

Unit economicsi

Retentioni

Growthi

Efficiencyi

Orientative, not absolute — weighted from survival, unit economics, retention, growth and efficiency against early-stage SaaS ranges (§9). Read it by stage, not as a grade.

Does your business hold up?

RunwayiRunway at today's burn rate — a conservative floor (if nothing improves). If your growth plan plays out, cash can last longer, or never run out — see the projected cash-out. "36+" means you're not burning cash.

2.0 months

Final MRRiProjected monthly recurring revenue at the end of the horizon.

$1,313

Avg MoM growthiAverage month-over-month MRR growth in the projection.

1.4%

Annual NRRiNet Revenue Retention: % of revenue you keep and expand from existing customers over a year, excluding new ones. >100% = you grow without selling.

22%

Cash over time

Cash hits 0 in month 2.

⚠️ At this pace, covering cash through month 36 would need ~$143,008 in funding — the plan needs to change.

MRR and active customers

MRR ($, left axis) · active customers (right axis)

Projection assumes your growth holds flat for 3 years; real growth usually slows, so later months read optimistic.

Team cost ramp

Loaded headcount cost per month ($).

Unit economics and burn

ARPAiAverage revenue per customer per month (MRR ÷ active customers).

$50

LTViCustomer lifetime value: ARPA × gross margin ÷ churn. What a customer leaves you on average while they stay.

$333

CACiCost to acquire a customer: sales/marketing spend ÷ new customers.

$500

LTV : CACiHow much a customer is worth vs what it costs to acquire them. Healthy ≥3 (mature SaaS reference).

0.7×

CAC paybackiMonths to recover CAC with the customer's margin. <12 strong; usually higher early-stage.

n/a

Monthly net burniWhat you burn per month = OpEx − gross profit. Negative = you make money.

$3,935

Burn multipleiHow much you burn per $ of new ARR. ≤1 excellent; at pre-seed 2.5-3.4x is normal.

>10

Rule of 40iAnnual growth % + EBITDA margin %. ≥40 signals a healthy balance — but it is a scale-up metric, less meaningful before Series A.

<-100

Magic numberiSales efficiency: new ARR ÷ prior sales/marketing spend. >0.75 healthy.

0.30

Quick ratioi(New + expansion) ÷ (churn + contraction). >4 = you grow much faster than you lose.

1.2

Diagnosis vs benchmarks

Metric	Your value	Healthy range	Verdict
Monthly logo churniChurn = the % of customers who cancel each month. 5%/mo ≈ losing ~46% of customers a year.	12%/mo	2.5%–4%/mo	🚩
NRR (annual)iNRR = net revenue retention: revenue kept from existing customers a year later, after churn and upgrades. Over 100% = you grow even with zero new customers.	21.6%	90%–110%	🚩
Gross marginiGross margin = % of revenue left after the direct cost of serving customers (hosting, fees, support).	80%	75%–85%	✅
CAC paybackiCAC payback = how many months a customer takes to repay what it cost to acquire them.Unreachable — your customers churn before they pay back their CAC (you lose money per customer).	n/a	≤ 18 m (pre-seed)	🚩
LTV : CACiLTV:CAC = how much a customer is worth over their lifetime versus what it costs to win them. 3+ is healthy.	0.7×	≥ 3×	🚩
Growth MoMiMoM growth = month-over-month growth: how much this number grows each month, compounding.Growth is flat for this stage — early on, momentum matters. Slow/no growth makes the rest harder.	1.4%	≥ 2%	⚠️
Burn multipleiBurn multiple = cash burned for each unit of new annual revenue you add. Lower is better; under 2 is solid.	>10	≤ 3.5 (pre-seed)	🚩

Churn and retention are judged against your price band (ARPA $50-500/mo) — cheaper products churn more, and that is normal. ✅ healthy · ⚠️ watch · 🚩 flag · ℹ️ too optimistic · — N/A.

These are a reference for your stage, not a verdict: many "healthy" ranges were set for mature SaaS. At pre-seed/seed a high burn multiple (≈2.5-3.4x) or long CAC payback is normal while you find traction. Use them to orient yourself, not to punish yourself.

Scenarios & sensitivity

	Pessimistic	Base	Optimistic
Verdict	🔴	🔴	🔴
Cash-out month	2 mo	2 mo	2 mo
Break-even	—	—	—
Final MRR	1,118	1,313	1,790
Final cash	-166,255	-143,008	-120,285

Even in the optimistic case you run out of cash — this is structural, not a matter of timing. No reasonable change of assumptions saves the current plan; the fix is the fundamentals: cut burn, fix your unit economics, or raise. Note: your optimistic case grows SLOWER — with unit economics this thin, winning customers faster burns more cash up front than it brings back.

What moves your runway most

These are the levers you can change, ranked by how much each moves your cash. Start at the top - that's where your effort pays off most. Each lever is moved on its own, with the rest held fixed; in reality they interact.

Each lever moved ±10% on its own — green helps your final cash, amber hurts it.

Lower OpEx-5,219 · +5,219

Higher price-2,819 · +2,819

Lower churn-1,979 · +2,274

Faster growth+1,008 · -1,061

P&L — monthly year 1, annual thereafter

$	M1	M2	M3	M4	M5	M6	M7	M8	M9	M10	M11	M12	Year 2	Year 3
Revenue	794	791	789	790	793	797	803	810	818	827	838	849	11,348	14,187
Gross profitiRevenue minus the direct cost of delivering your service (hosting, payment fees, support). What's left to cover everything else.	635	632	631	632	634	638	642	648	654	662	670	679	9,079	11,350
OpExiOperating expenses: everything you spend to run the business — team, sales & marketing, tools, admin, R&D.	-4,550	-4,568	-4,586	-4,605	-4,624	-4,644	-4,664	-4,684	-4,704	-4,726	-4,747	-4,769	-59,109	-63,215
Team	-3,500	-3,500	-3,500	-3,500	-3,500	-3,500	-3,500	-3,500	-3,500	-3,500	-3,500	-3,500	-42,000	-42,000
S&M	-900	-918	-936	-955	-974	-994	-1,014	-1,034	-1,054	-1,076	-1,097	-1,119	-15,309	-19,415
G&A	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-50	-600	-600
Infra	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-100	-1,200	-1,200
EBITDAiOperating-profit proxy (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). Negative = you're burning cash; positive = profitable.	-3,915	-3,936	-3,955	-3,973	-3,990	-4,006	-4,021	-4,036	-4,050	-4,064	-4,077	-4,090	-50,030	-51,865

Diagnosis

Your #1 problem: you run out of cash around month 2.

What this means

Will you survive?
In short: at this pace your business runs out of cash around month 2 — before it can pay for itself. That's the headline to fix: you need more runway, faster revenue, or lower spending. The good news is you can see exactly how much, and you have time to act.
What's your biggest problem?
Your biggest problem is runway. On the current path your cash runs low around month 2, before the business covers its own costs. Everything else matters less until you close that gap.
Do you make money on each customer?
On the per-customer maths: it costs about $500 to win a customer, and each is worth roughly $333 over their lifetime — about 0.7 to 1 (healthy is 3 to 1+). The good news: most of that gap is the churn problem. Keep customers longer and each one is worth more automatically, lifting this ratio on its own.
What do you fix first?
What to focus on first: extend your runway before month 2. Three levers — raise more, grow revenue faster, or cut spending. The first buys time; the other two fix the business. Knowing your number turns a vague worry into a plan.

What to look at first

🚩Each customer barely pays back
Each customer costs almost as much to win as they'll ever be worth (LTV:CAC 0.7) — you're not really getting ahead. To reach a healthy 3-to-1, bring the cost of winning one from $500 down to ~$111, or charge more / keep them longer, before spending more on growth.
🚩High churn
You're losing customers fast — 12.0 of every 100 cancel each month. That quietly caps what each one is ever worth to you: halve it (to 6.0%) and each becomes worth about double (~$333 → ~$667). Worth finding out why they leave.
⚠️Burn multiple is high
Every $1 of new yearly revenue is costing you >10× that in cash burn (solid for your stage is ≤ 3.5×). Grow revenue without growing spending to bring it down.
⚠️Growth is nearly flat
Growth is nearly flat (1.4%/mo). If you're not profitable yet, it needs to pick up to reach break-even before the runway runs out.

Second opinion from your AI

Analyze this model in your own AI

Copy a ready-made prompt with your numbers, paste it into ChatGPT, Claude or any AI, and get a skeptical second opinion — red flags, what's strong, and what to fix next.

Runs in YOUR AI — we don't see it or store it. AI can make mistakes; treat it as a second opinion, not gospel. The prompt tells it not to invent numbers, but always sanity-check.