Example financial model
Real figuresdevtools · pre-seed · PLG · 36-month projection
Verdict
⚠️ Default alive — but one thing is holding you back
You reach break-even in month 36 without exhausting cash — but that only holds if you fix the problem below first.
The first thing to fix
⚠️Tight unit economics
Each customer is worth about 2.6× what it costs to win them (LTV:CAC) — healthy is 3 or more. To get there, bring the cost of winning one from $533 to ~$458, or charge more / keep them longer. Early on it's a rough guide, not a verdict.
Viability score
Viability score
On track
Solid foundation. Keep an eye on the amber items as you scale.
Orientative, not absolute — weighted from survival, unit economics, retention, growth and efficiency against early-stage SaaS ranges (§9). Read it by stage, not as a grade.
Does your business hold up?
Runwayi
36+ months
Final MRRi
$36,598
Avg MoM growthi
3.4%
Annual NRRi
78%
Cash over time
Cash isn't exhausted within the horizon (break-even in month 36).
MRR and active customers
MRR ($, left axis) · active customers (right axis)
Projection assumes your growth holds flat for 3 years; real growth usually slows, so later months read optimistic.
Team cost ramp
Loaded headcount cost per month ($).
Unit economics and burn
ARPAi
$69
LTVi
$1,375
CACi
$533
LTV : CACi
2.6×
CAC paybacki
9.7 months
Monthly net burni
$5,637
Burn multiplei
0.5
Rule of 40i
43
Magic numberi
4.52
Quick ratioi
2.1
Founder dilutioni
30%
Post-moneyi
2,500,000
Diagnosis vs benchmarks
| Metric | Your value | Healthy range | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monthly logo churni | 4%/mo | 2.5%–4%/mo | ✅ |
| NRR (annual)i | 78.5% | 90%–110% | ⚠️ |
| Gross margini | 80% | 75%–85% | ✅ |
| CAC paybacki | 9.7 m | ≤ 18 m (pre-seed) | ✅ |
| LTV : CACi | 2.6× | ≥ 3× | ⚠️ |
| Growth MoMi | 3.4% | ≤ 25% (base 11K) | ✅ |
| Pre-moneyiRange = pre-seed/seed medians in EUROPE (PitchBook + Dealroom, 2024). A high valuation is not "bad" — it is a bar your next round has to clear. | 2.0M | 2.0M–4.0M | ✅ |
| Option pooli | 10% | 10%–15% | ✅ |
| Burn multiplei | 0.5 | ≤ 3.5 (pre-seed) | ✅ |
Churn and retention are judged against your price band (ARPA $50-500/mo) — cheaper products churn more, and that is normal. ✅ healthy · ⚠️ watch · 🚩 flag · ℹ️ too optimistic · — N/A.
These are a reference for your stage, not a verdict: many "healthy" ranges were set for mature SaaS. At pre-seed/seed a high burn multiple (≈2.5-3.4x) or long CAC payback is normal while you find traction. Use them to orient yourself, not to punish yourself.
Scenarios & sensitivity
| Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Verdict | ⚠️ | ✅ | ✅ |
| Cash-out month | > 36 mo | > 36 mo | > 36 mo |
| Break-even | — | 36 mo | 18 mo |
| Final MRR | 16,428 | 36,598 | 83,108 |
| Final cash | 295,805 | 445,774 | 688,843 |
Even the pessimistic case doesn't run out of cash — that's real robustness; your downside is protected. Each adjusts growth, churn, OpEx and price together — a realistic range, not a promise.
What moves your runway most
These are the levers you can change, ranked by how much each moves your cash. Start at the top - that's where your effort pays off most. Each lever is moved on its own, with the rest held fixed; in reality they interact.
Each lever moved ±10% on its own — green helps your final cash, amber hurts it.
P&L — monthly year 1, annual thereafter
| $ | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | M7 | M8 | M9 | M10 | M11 | M12 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,193 | 11,402 | 11,629 | 11,873 | 12,137 | 12,421 | 12,725 | 13,051 | 13,400 | 13,772 | 14,168 | 14,590 | 219,145 | 350,806 |
| Gross profiti | 8,954 | 9,121 | 9,303 | 9,499 | 9,710 | 9,937 | 10,180 | 10,441 | 10,720 | 11,017 | 11,335 | 11,672 | 175,316 | 280,645 |
| OpExi | -14,600 | -14,760 | -14,928 | -15,104 | -15,290 | -15,484 | -15,688 | -15,903 | -16,128 | -16,364 | -16,612 | -16,873 | -228,272 | -301,070 |
| Team | -11,250 | -11,250 | -11,250 | -11,250 | -11,250 | -11,250 | -11,250 | -11,250 | -11,250 | -11,250 | -11,250 | -11,250 | -135,000 | -135,000 |
| S&M | -3,200 | -3,360 | -3,528 | -3,704 | -3,890 | -4,084 | -4,288 | -4,503 | -4,728 | -4,964 | -5,212 | -5,473 | -91,472 | -164,270 |
| G&A | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -50 | -600 | -600 |
| Infra | -100 | -100 | -100 | -100 | -100 | -100 | -100 | -100 | -100 | -100 | -100 | -100 | -1,200 | -1,200 |
| EBITDAi | -5,646 | -5,639 | -5,625 | -5,606 | -5,580 | -5,547 | -5,508 | -5,462 | -5,408 | -5,347 | -5,278 | -5,201 | -52,955 | -20,425 |
Diagnosis
Your #1 problem: you run out of cash around month 36.
What this means
Will you survive?
In short: the cash math works — you reach break-even around month 36 before running low on cash. But that projection only holds if the problem below gets fixed first.
What's your biggest problem?
Your biggest problem is runway. On the current path your cash runs low around month 36, before the business covers its own costs. Everything else matters less until you close that gap.
Do you make money on each customer?
On the per-customer maths: it costs about $533 to win a customer, and each one is worth roughly $1,375 over their lifetime — about 2.6 to 1. Healthy is 3 to 1 or better, so there's room, but you're in workable territory.
What do you fix first?
What to focus on: you're in good shape, so the job is to protect what works and push your strongest levers harder — without letting costs or churn creep up as you grow.
What to look at first
⚠️Net revenue retention is low
Your existing customers bring in 78% of last year's revenue (NRR) — low even for your price band. Cheap self-serve rarely clears 100%, so that alone is not the problem; being below what similar-priced products retain is. Win it back with upsells/expansion or by lowering churn.
Second opinion from your AI
Analyze this model in your own AI
Copy a ready-made prompt with your numbers, paste it into ChatGPT, Claude or any AI, and get a skeptical second opinion — red flags, what's strong, and what to fix next.
Runs in YOUR AI — we don't see it or store it. AI can make mistakes; treat it as a second opinion, not gospel. The prompt tells it not to invent numbers, but always sanity-check.
How much to raise — and what it costs you
You're asking $500,000. To stay above zero cash for 18 months, this model says you need $9,935.
Raising $54,454 carries you past break-even in month 36. That is what it costs to stop NEEDING to raise: 13% of your company (at your declared pre-money of $2,000,000).
18 months without running out of cash
Ask$9,935Dilution10.5%@ $2.0M pre-moneyYou keep89.5%24 months without running out of cash
Ask$33,801Dilution11.7%@ $2.0M pre-moneyYou keep88.3%All the way to break-even (month 36)
Ask$54,454Dilution12.7%@ $2.0M pre-moneyYou keep87.3%
| What it buys you | Ask | Dilutioni | You keep |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 months without running out of cash | $9,935 | 10.5%@ $2.0M pre-money | 89.5% |
| 24 months without running out of cash | $33,801 | 11.7%@ $2.0M pre-money | 88.3% |
| All the way to break-even (month 36) | $54,454 | 12.7%@ $2.0M pre-money | 87.3% |
Valuation reality-check
Your declared pre-money is $2,000,000. Healthy pre-seed range (Europe): $2,000,000–$4,000,000. You are inside it.
- The range is built on EUROPEAN pre-seed/seed medians (PitchBook + Dealroom, 2024). If you raise elsewhere, read it as a reference, not a rule.
- Dilution is computed at your declared pre-money of $2,000,000, including a 10% option pool.
- Your terms are set for a round of $500,000; a round of a different size would be negotiated on different terms.
- This is the MINIMUM not to run out of cash. It leaves zero margin: if the plan slips a month, you are short.
- Assumes your current cost plan. Change the plan and the ask changes.
- A starting point for your own decision, not investment advice.
The questions your numbers invite
Not fixes — the Diagnosis section tells you what to change. This is rehearsal: what a sharp investor pokes at, and what to have ready. We never write your answer.
Lead with this
- Monthly logo churn 4%/mo · 2.5%–4%/mo
- Gross margin 80% · 75%–85%
- CAC payback 9.7 m · ≤ 18 m (pre-seed)
- Growth MoM 3.4% · ≤ 25% (base 11K)
- Pre-money 2.0M · 2.0M–4.0M
- Option pool 10% · 10%–15%
- Burn multiple 0.5 · ≤ 3.5 (pre-seed)
Prepare for this
Soft spot
“Your NRR is 78.5%, below the healthy range (90%–110%). Why isn't expansion covering churn?”
Prepare: Prepare your retention explanation: how expansion and churn net out, with the numbers.
Soft spot
“Your LTV:CAC is 2.6×, below ≥ 3×. Does each customer pay back what it costs to win them?”
Prepare: Have the CAC build-up and your customer-lifetime assumption ready.
Only 2 of your numbers invite a question. That is a good position — we are not going to invent problems to fill this page.
One they will ask anyway
“Your churn is 4%/mo. How do you define and measure it — logos or revenue? Over which cohort, and from which month?”
Prepare: Have the definition and the cohort ready. A healthy churn measured the wrong way stops being healthy.
Not a weakness: this metric has no single definition, so a sharp investor asks how you compute it before trusting it.
And the ones that are not about a single metric
“What is your path to default-alive?”
Your cash does not run out, and you break even in month 36.
Prepare: Be ready to name what gets you there and when — with the number, not the intention.
“How long does this round last?”
With the round you declared, cash does not run out (break-even in month 36).
Prepare: Know the month your cash gets tight, not just a number of months.
Your round on one page
Your working sheet before the call. It shows the round you declared — not what the Raise Plan says you would need.
Yours only. This sheet carries figures you would not put in front of an investor — such as the minimum you could get away with raising. Print it for yourself; don't send it.
The ask
You're raising $500,000 on a priced round ($2,000,000 pre-money).
With it your cash doesn't run out — you break even in month 36.
Time to go after: Reach $30k MRR and a repeatable sales motion.
For reference: on your own, the minimum not to run out of cash over the full 36-month projection is $54,454 (see the Raise Plan). This page shows the round you declared, unchanged.
The bridge
Today, on your own
cash runs out in month 16
With this round
cash doesn't run out — break-even in month 36
Traction
- MRR
- $11,000
- Growth
- 3.4%/mo
- Customers
- 160
Against the benchmarks
- NRR (annual)
- 78.5%90%–110%
- LTV : CAC
- 2.6×≥ 3×
- CAC payback
- 9.7 m≤ 18 m (pre-seed)
- Gross margin
- 80%75%–85%
- Burn multiple
- 0.5≤ 3.5 (pre-seed)
Cap table after this round
Founders keep 70.0%
- At your declared pre-money of $2,000,000, with a 10% option pool.
Prepared with Startkeel from the founder's own figures · estimates, not audited · not investment advice.
Funding and dilution (optional)
Only relevant if you decide to raise. Your business can hold up without this.
Pre-money 2,000,000 · round 500,000 · post-money 2,500,000
| Stakeholder | % before | % after | Value $ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Founders | 100% | 70% | 1,750,000 |
| New investor | — | 20% | 500,000 |
| Option pool (new) | — | 10% | 250,000 |
Split BEFORE the round
Split AFTER the round
"Pre-money pool shuffle": the new option pool is created pre-money, so it dilutes existing shareholders, not the new investor.